Onwards & Upwards*

What do you see in the above picture?

Besides wishing you had bought this stock in 2013, what are your general thoughts on the picture? Would you say that the stock price is rising, falling or staying largely consistent? I believe most of us would interpret it as an upwards trajectory.

In a conversation today where I was reflecting on a few things, I learned that linear upwards need not necessarily be the graph for growth in life. Wouldn’t you say that HDFCBANK was more valuable in 2020 than 2013? Do you notice what happens right before 2017 and 2019? It falls. But it also recovers. And continues to trend upwards, much to the relief of its shareholders.

One of the plausible explanations for stock price crashes sometimes is known as “correction”. In this philosophy of growth in life, this could translate to period of stabilisation. Say, Universe’s way of making you more humble. Sometimes we achieve at an unsustainable pace. Sometimes we get too heady for our own good. This is a period where you might not be doing really great, but if you don’t fail, how do you value success?

I guess our growth in life is indeed similar – while momentarily (fleeting or by comparison to our existence) we may feel we have failed, it might be worthwhile to take an account of how things were, at the outset, and how far we have come. We may have different metrics for our respective growths – but the goal remains the same for most, to be on a constant pursuit of betterment.

So, I guess as long as you are putting in honest and well-directed efforts, there would be only reasons beyond your control bringing your graph down, causing a short-term “crash”. And if they are beyond your control, can you really do anything but dust yourself off and try again?

*This is not my idea. I am merely elaborating on something I learned today as a part of one of my conversations.

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